Thursday, March 26, 2009

This year can't be any worse

Despite my recent pessimism towards the O's 2009 season, I came to the realization today that the O's can't do any worse than they did last year. Let's look through their lineup from last year and compare it to this year.

2008

SP 1 - Jeremy Guthrie (10-12, 3.63 ERA)
SP 2 - Daniel Cabrera (8-10, 5.25)
SP 3 - Garrett Olson + Adam Loewen (9-12, 6.84)
SP 4 - Radhames Liz + Chris Waters (9-11, 5.98)
SP 5 - Brian Burres + Steve Trachsel (12-15, 8.16)
CL - George Sherrill (4.72 ERA, 31 SV)

C - Ramon Hernandez + Gustavo Quiroz (.241 AVG, 17 HR, 79 RBI)
1B - Kevin Millar (.234, 20, 72)
2B - Brian Roberts (.296, 9, 57)
3B - Melvin Mora (.285, 23, 104)
SS - Brandon Fahey + Juan Castro + Freddie Bynum + Alex Cintron + Luis Hernandez (.227, 3, 49)
LF - Luke Scott (.257, 23, 65)
CF - Adam Jones (.270, 9, 57)
RF - Nick Markakis (.306, 20, 87)
DH - Aubrey Huff (.304,32,108)

It's amazing how awful the Orioles were at starting pitcher and shortstop last year. The players this year, while not great, should do an overall better job. I'll make some predictions here, but I'm flexible, so if you disagree, comment on it.

2009

SP 1 - Jeremy Guthrie (12-10, 3.75 ERA)
SP 2 - Koji Uehara (10-10, 4.50)
SP 3 - Mark Hendrickson + Rich Hill (11-9, 4.70)
SP 4 - Adam Eaton + Brad Bergesen (9-12, 5.10)
SP 5 - Hayden Penn (9-11, 5.20)
CL - George Sherrill + Chris Ray (4.20 ERA, 35 SV)

C - Gregg Zaun + Matt Wieters (.265 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI)
1B - Aubrey Huff (.290, 25, 90)
2B - Brian Roberts (.295, 10, 60)
3B - Melvin Mora (.275, 15, 75)
SS - Cesar Izturis (.250, 0, 50)
LF - Felix Pie + Ryan Freel (.270, 5, 50)
CF - Adam Jones (.280, 15, 70)
RF - Nick Markakis (.310, 25, 105)
DH - Luke Scott + Ty Wigginton (.265 , 30, 80)

I'm guessing that Hendrickson will start until Hill is ready and that Ray will eventually replace Sherrill as the closer. Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton could be a dangerous platoon because Scott kills right handers and Wigginton does even better against lefties. Adam Jones should improve quite a bit. Even though the team isn't looking great, we should be better off than last year, even with Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora probably dropping off a little.

3 comments:

Matt said...

Haha, I like your optimistic opening statment. That's a great way to put it.

Mark said...

Your optimism is encouraging with a week to go in spring training. Reviewing last year's staff ERA provides some hope that it can only get better. Lets hope June brings at least two of the following; Arieta, Tillman, Bergesen, Matusz in addition to a hot shot AAA catcher.

Please also note that I am now officially on the "Louis Montanez for starting left field bandwagon". I liked the idea of giving Pie a long look, but after reading the Sun article today (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles28mar28,0,5776640.story) I find that Montanez was a first rounder who has won a triple crown at AA and was once compared to Alex Rodriguez (for his bat I hope). Play him now or package him with another prospect to get a career starter with 4.5 ERA.

Zach said...

I think Guthrie will be better than you have him doing, he just had bad luck with run support last year. But I think the back end of the rotation will be awful and i think you're a little too optimistic there.
Mora is old and he's not very good...I would take a 275 avg in a heartbeat from him.
And another good thing is the bullpen should probably be better...as long as they realize Sarfate is awful. We have 3 very good relievers in Johnson, Sherrill, and Ray.